It is interesting to note the rapid rise in US propylene (and benzene) values as they follow propane and crude prices (propane is following crude because of its heating value and export opportunities). Ethylene is not moving as US natural gas is in surplus and is not following international natural gas prices. The US is surplus ethylene and derivatives, but we would expect to see ethylene and ethylene derivative prices jump up in the US if Europe is physically unable to make ethylene and derivatives or if the costs in Europe become so high that supplying incremental volumes from the US becomes even more compelling. For more see today's report titled "Into The Mystic – Ex-US Energy Price Surge Favors US Producers; Low Visibility Keeps Capex In Check".
Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, March 2022