We highlight more from the IEA on the importance of EVs versus other vehicles to bring down “well to wheel” carbon footprints and the second (not unexpected) “kick in the pants” chart that shows the World woefully short in terms of its projected EV adoption rate. There are – probably expensive – hurdles to reaching the IEA net-zero goals with respect to EVs. The first is going to be the need to pay or tax consumers enough for them to give up a perfectly good ICE vehicle long before the end of its natural life.
Source: IEA Mobility Model – Global Fuel Economy Initiative, November 2021
All of the vehicle life cycle analysis that has been published has ICE vehicle use peaking in the mid-2030s before declining. To accelerate this, ICE owners will need an incentive to switch early. Separately, the faster the transition to EVs the more renewable power will be needed, and we believe that renewable power capacity installation constraints could be the rate-limiting step in several broad initiatives. We believe that the workaround is more CCS and a longer life for (clean) natural gas-based power, as well as more blue hydrogen. See more in our ESG and Climate work.
Source: IEA Mobility Model – Global Fuel Economy Initiative, November 2021