A couple of things worth noting today that reflects our commodity index in today's daily report but also looks at some of the results below. The linked solar headline is confirmation of one of the topics that we have probably worn out over the last few months, which is that renewable power ambitions have not taken into account real limitations in the rate of equipment supply, especially solar modules. New forecasts suggest that the US expected installations of solar capacity could come in 25% short in 2022, which has implications for energy transition ambition, but also overall power supply as the shortfall will have to be made up elsewhere. It is not just a function of solar module availability but also solar module costs, because of some of the material cost inflation illustrated in exhibit 1 (see today's daily report). These shortfalls will have implications for natural gas demand in the US if it needs to fill the gap, and we have already noted that we think US natural gas prices could spike in 2022, much higher than we saw in 2021.
