We share views from Christopher Sheeron - The first-ever guest author for C-MACC's most recent ESG and Climate report titled "Does DC Understand Economics – Energy Proposals Suggest No".
Main Points from this report include:
Despite all of the rhetoric about the need for green hydrogen, we see most of the large ammonia producers pursuing large blue projects – with Nutrien’s announcement yesterday coming on the heels of a CF new facility announcement and the CO2 capture project announced by LSB a couple of weeks ago. While there are some small (proof of concept) green projects in the works, they are very small, tiny when compared with the ammonia need, whether to replace lost material from Russia and Ukraine or whether to supply what could be substantial needs in Asia to co-fire coal plants, or as a shipping fuel, or as a carrier for hydrogen (see third chart below). The ammonia majors are not waiting around for “green” economics to improve as they see meaningful near-term demand that cannot wait for scale efficiencies of available power on the green side. Large-scale sources of cheap renewable power are hard to find, and where they may exist, there is competition from uses that may be able to pay more.
There is the potential for the ammonia thirst (please don’t drink it) to surpass opportunities to build cost-effective capacity for the medium term. Consequently, the shortages we see today could extend and become more severe. Co-firing coal-based power facilities in Asia is one of the more obvious ways to start decarbonizing a predominantly coal-based power region. The experiments in Japan, if successful, will drive a step-change in demand for blue or green ammonia, and this should drive much more new capacity than we have seen announced to date. The power-based demand comes on top of expected growth in fertilizer-driven demand and a possible rise as a shipping fuel. The issue for investors is that green ammonia at scale is economically challenging, especially with the recent shortfalls in renewable power generating plans and what now looks like rising power costs for a while. Blue ammonia is much easier to think about at scale, but we are still hamstrung by expensive carbon capture costs and a lack of incentives – either in terms of tax breaks or taxes or in terms of a customer willing to pay more, to get most ideas and plans past the “wouldn’t it be nice” phase. In the meantime, as indicated above, installed ammonia capacity is making abnormal returns.
The renewable power space is heading for a very bad year in the US and Europe, as supply chain issues and raw material inflation will impact not only the amount of business that gets completed, but also the margin on that business. The trade issues between the US and China on solar panels have essentially brought the industry to a halt for the moment and suggests that all forecasts of the growth in renewable power contributions in the US in 2022 are too high, and consequently demand estimates for natural gas and coal for power generation are too low – see out comments in the energy section of today's daily report. The EIA forecast below likely fails to take into account the current woes and if governments, at the federal and the state levels act on the information in the chart they may be unprepared for some power shortages later in the year. Overestimation of the rate of renewable power installation as well as its operating rate is responsible for many of the current power shortages that we see in most regions.
Looking at the Bloom results and reflecting on our many recent client discussions, the low-cost providers of fuel cells and electrolyzers are going to win disproportionately in our view, but whether that is Bloom or others remains to be seen. Lower costs will come with scale, and this should allow the leaders to stay ahead, especially if they control their equipment production as Bloom does. The negative for Bloom is that its equipment production is in the US, which may add costs, but the positive is that it is on-shore and this gives the company more control over delivery in the US. Companies that can scale quickly in this space and other renewable sectors, should see the benefit of economies of scale and this should drive more wins and more economies.
We discussed the woes of the wind power industry at length in a dedicated ESG and Climate piece last week, and the Vestas results below play into the same theme. The company is cutting guidance again for 2022, which is already much lower than estimates would have suggested 6 months ago. While Siemens Gamesa has the added headache of a mismanaged platform change, all of the issues raised by Vestas are shared industry wide, delayed installations because of supply chain issues and material shortages, as well as significant cost inflation. In tomorrow’s ESG and Climate report we discuss some of the increases in European PPAs in 1Q 2022, reversing a multi-year trend of lower installed costs of power. This reversal will likely impact plans for 2022 and 2023, especially for those banking on lower power costs to justify many of the announced hydrogen ventures – particularly in Europe. Those who press ahead despite higher power costs and higher construction costs in general, may stretch both balance sheets and borrowing capacity.
Anyone who read our ESG and Climate reports of the last two weeks will know that we do not believe in the hydrogen projections below as we see renewable power as a potentially scarce resource. Furthermore and also covered yesterday, should the API be successful with its carbon tax proposal in the US and should this be additive to the 45Q incentive for CCS, we could see an explosion of blue hydrogen investments in the US, especially on the Gulf Coast.
The CCS spending chart below is quite detailed, but shows the limited amount of spending in 2021 and 2022 and may underestimate the amount of seismic spending needed, especially in the US, as companies prepare permit applications. We do not expect to see much spending in the US before mid-decade beyond permit applications. However, as we discuss in today’s ESG and Climate report, should the API proposed carbon tax, or something similar, be additive to the 45Q tax credit, we could see a step-change in CCS when/if the tax is approved. The tax on its own is likely not enough to drive decarbonizing investment, but when added to 45Q it could be a specific trigger for CCS investment, and we could see a step-change in the second half of the decade. This might involve large-scale blue hydrogen production, especially on the Gulf Coast to decarbonize the refining and chemical industries.
The Colgate Palmolive sustainability and social impact report is very comprehensive, and we like the comprehensive inclusion of water security towards the end. The challenge for all corporates that set goals like those outlined below will be the elements that they cannot control – something we discussed at length in this week’s ESG and Climate report with a focus on sustainable fuels. We cannot pursue renewable power as fast as we would like without supportive policy around materials investment – Colgate Palmolive will not be able to get to 100% renewable power by 2030 if it is either not available or prohibitively expensive because of competition. The company will also not be able to meet its sustainable materials goals of the sustainable goals that need to come from crops. We do not have a radically different farm policy. The goal to achieve 100% recyclable reusable or compostable plastic packaging by 2025, is very ambitious and has some negative ramifications for the compounders, who will likely lose volume, and positive ramifications for compostable polymers.
Given the lead time to get some of the emission abatement projects in place – whether it be renewable power or hydrogen with carbon capture – many of the 2030 goals that we see, like the LyondellBasell chart below – are likely to be just that – plans for 2030, with not much in the years in between. We see very little CCS coming online in the US over the next 5 years because of permitting and because of the lead time for any large hydrogen or power project that might be associated with the CCS. Not too many companies seem interested in cleaning up existing CO2 streams and are more interested in building alternative capacity that generates easier to capture CO2 – such as hydrogen from an ATR. These are expensive and long lead-time projects. LyondellBasell, ExxonMobil, Dow, and others might meet their 2030 targets but it might all happen in 2029/30.