The gaps in the exhibit below are not surprising as 2050 is a long way away and we would not expect all of the needed capacity to be announced or pledged yet, especially as many companies are still weighing alternatives. For example, as an ethylene producer, you have 5 paths – hydrogen as a furnace fuel – electric power as a heating medium – stick with what you have and use CCS – find an alternative route to make the polymers – make alternative polymers.
Given that R&D is being done in all directions, we would not expect a definitive hydrogen decision yet for many companies. We have noted in the past that we are concerned that the Announced Pledges combine to too much capacity for the renewable power generation capacity to keep up (given its other needs) and that we might not get the cheap power that many of these plants are expecting – look for our ESG and Climate piece tomorrow that will discuss the China 2060 plans in detail and raises some of the same concerns.
Source: IEA Global Hydrogen Review - 2021, October 2021
