The IEA CO2 emissions data is not a surprise as it has been telegraphed for a while by several commentators that the world went backward in 2021. There were several causes, not least of which was an economy which, with the benefit of hindsight, was overstimulated, pushing up demand for resources in general, including energy. There has also been an overestimation of the rate of investment in renewable power, something which is finally gaining attention more generally, triggered by the energy supply fears that have emerged from the Russia/Ukraine conflict. It will take time to make the very large investments needed to abate the CO2 associated with industrial and consumer activity and there is no overnight fix. Accommodative policies are needed today for investments that will start a decline in emissions several years from now.
Source: IEA Global Energy Review – CO2 Emissions In 2021, March 2022
As the second exhibit notes, even the US and the EU saw emissions rise in 2021, despite trends that were largely negative for years. 2021 was lower than 2019 in both cases, but still above trend, reflecting the surge in economic activity and some weather issues that were not conducive to renewable power output. It is critically important that weather variability is factored into plans.
Source: IEA Global Energy Review – CO2 Emissions In 2021, March 2022
