The materials chart in the exhibit below from today's daily report, is worth noting as it highlights all of the materials that are needed to advance the production of equipment required to drive renewable power production and demand. We would make one change to the chart in that lithium should also be added to the wind and solar categories to account for storage that needs to be built, although this could be done through hydrogen production or hydraulically, depending on location. One of our primary concerns concerning renewable power projections is the availability of some of these materials and we have written about the topic at length – most comprehensively in - 2022 – Policy Key, But Inflation Will Distract – Maybe Beneficially.
We struggle with both of the charts below, as we see the rate of potential renewable additions as far too optimistic, not because of a lack of capital, but because of a lack of materials and the knock on effect that this could have on capital if project costs increase meaningfully or if timelines extend. The solar expansions planned for Texas for example all require solar modules and there is simply not enough capacity to make these modules and in many cases not enough raw materials. All of these projects are not planned for the same year, but regardless, when you add the Texas plans to plans all over the World, you have an annual rate of addition that the equipment makers will not be able to meet. Today, many of the projects are in the planning and financing stage and the installers have yet to go looking for equipment – when they do, they may have to rethink.
The first chart below has been included in a similar form in prior work and is a good summary of what is needed to decarbonize the LNG market to the greatest degree possible. There is a lot of resistance to the idea of endorsing natural gas as a transition fuel, but so many developed and developing countries need natural gas – often in the form of LNG – to displace or avoid (additional) coal use. If the LNG industry does not start to pursue the paths suggested in the exhibit, and reasonably quickly, it will stand very little chance of winning, or perhaps surviving, a PR battle that is very much stacked against it.
In last week's ESG & Climate report titled The Evolution Of the Plastic Industry Could Stall in 2022, we introduced our “new materials” stock index, and we have included our hydrogen index in this week's report titled, Hydrogen – Hype, Hope, and Headlines. We have created these for several sectors and each week we will add the chart below showing one-week and one-year performance for each index. Note that these are simple averages for each group and are not market cap-weighted. If we did a market cap weighting, we would have a couple of sectors where one stock dominated all - EVs for example. The steep decline in the EV index in 2021 was largely due to the negative performance of the Chinese EV companies that trade in the US and are included in the index. Note that all sectors have had a bad start to this year. We have chosen to include a water category as we have noted since we began this service that water is an area that we believe will be in greater focus going forward and will be considered an ESG topic.
In our dedicated ESG and climate piece tomorrow we will focus on the progress and lack of progress at COP26 and discuss some of the likely consequences (intended and unintended) for the energy and materials industries. One of the subjects we touched on in the energy section of today's daily report, is how to craft a methane emission initiative that does not result in a decline in natural gas production before we see a needed recovery as the last thing the world needs now is more limited natural gas availability. Methane emission reduction looks like it is one subject on which there appears to be broad global agreement.
It is interesting to contrast Linde and LyondellBasell with Air Products and Dow. Air Products and Dow have transitioned away from the more generic messaging around broad objectives, and while they still have them, have started talking about concrete plans and spending aimed at lowering carbon emissions. Dow has a project on the books that will lower the emissions of existing capacity while Air Products is talking about greenfield low carbon investments at this point. Many of the commentators and climate activists are calling for concrete plans as opposed to broad objectives and we suspect that most of the narrative will move that way across energy and materials.