The ICIS polypropylene analysis in the linked headline is interesting in that it shows the vulnerability of the traditional exporters of polypropylene to China if China goes ahead with the longer-term capacity announcements that local producers have made to date. The analysis suggests that this development will move China moves from deficit to surplus in PP.. Where the analysis may be wrong in our view is that the current high price of propane, low ethylene margins, and low local polypropylene margins could put portions of the planned capacity on hold, and while it may come eventually, the phasing of additions may be different. Current economics make any ethylene (and associated propylene) investments hard to justify and the same with PDH. In the past, we have seen China pull back investments when economics have not worked – most notably in the early part of the last decade when oil prices were very high. At that time China moved to projects based on coal, and while that may re-emerge, local oversupply, in general, will slow things down in our view, and pushing back towards coal may not fit with whatever carbon emission targets China will set ahead of the COP26 meeting.
