Following on from the Enterprise comments covered in our daily report, the company is more likely to acquire something in chemicals than build it in our view, especially if a move into ethylene or polymers is on the table. Today, building capacity will come with all sorts of emission-related restrictions most likely, and many of the new build announcements we have seen since COP26 have come with a carbon plan (Dow, Air Product, and Borouge). While it is not obvious today that any Gulf Coast ethylene capacity is up for sale, we would imagine that most companies are reviewing strategy and evaluating whether they have assets of entire businesses that may have a better owner. This would be especially true if a basic chemical business is holding back the valuation of a more interesting core. In the recent past, we have talked about the relative value arbitrage open to LyondellBasell from separating its compounding, licensing, and recycling business from the core. Maybe the core would fit well with Enterprise? As the chart below shows, there is money in buying ethylene for export, but there is more money in the US in making ethylene, as discussed in our daily report.
We are not surprised by some of the DuPont stories this morning. We had predicted a long time ago that Mr. Breen was far from done on the restructuring of the company and that COVID might have caused a delay in some of the plans but not changed them. Mr. Breen did a very value-enhancing job of taking Tyco from a slightly out of control, then GE wannabe, to a group of focused companies, separated from the whole. What he has panned for DuPont comes from the same playbook in our view. The divestments and acquisitions announced today will create a core at DuPont – focused on electronics, water, protection, industrial technologies, and “next generation” automotive. Given some of the recent industry moves, we would expect significant interest in the engineering polymers and other resins platforms. After these moves are complete, while not yet obvious from a valuation perspective, we could see a further split, carving out an ESG friendly piece focused around water and protection, although the moves announced today may be enough to get the company an earnings multiple boost.