In the first Exhibit below we show a 5-year high in chemical rail-car movements. We have noted in research since early October that 4Q production in the US could be very high because of a combination of available capacity – following a year of weather-related delays – and very attractive margins and demand. We have been at the high end of rail car volumes for most of the quarter, and this may be part of the reason why we are seeing some price weakness for polymers in the US. Most of the polyethylene exported from the US moves from the manufacturing site to the export port via rail, so increased exports would also drive higher rail car numbers. As long as pricing and margins remain high and customer demand robust, we would expect these higher volumes to continue. This does not make us any less concerned that somewhere in the chain there is now an inventory build going on and that fortunes could reverse in 2022.
Source: AAR, Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, November 2021
Separately, we are now at the end of the second week of relatively stable olefin pricing in the US – Exhibit below. We put the ethylene stability down to a clear export arbitrage to Asia and a relatively stable Asia price, set by local naphtha-based economics and not very much incremental margin. Propylene demand remains very strong based on the quarterly reports of propylene derivative sellers – polymers and other derivatives. Propylene may also be influenced by the very strong propane market, although PDH margins remain high. For more see our daily reports.
Source: Bloomberg, C-MACC Analysis, November 2021
