With the linked Ashland release, we see another example of a downstream chemical maker struggling with higher input costs and general logistic constraints, and an inability to push through pricing quickly enough to avoid a margin squeeze. The opaqueness that Ashland discusses concerning some of the planning metrics for the near-term is impacting forecasts and estimates for many more companies than just Ashland but given the costs and the supply chain challenges, all are encouraged to push through pricing aggressively, and this suggests that we are far from done with the materials inflationary pressures that we have discussed at length in prior reports and the higher costs of some of these specialty chemicals will start to impact customer margins through 2022. Almost all the earnings reports that we see discuss strong end-market demand and whether this is final customer pull-through or a need to address chain inventory or both, it should support further price initiatives. For more on our inflation views see Inflation (Especially Energy Costs) – Biggest 2022 Wildcard.
While this is covered in more detail in our ESG report today as well as our daily report, we highlight the Wacker results below. This confirms a key inflation fear for renewable power, as we see the rapid increase in silicon and polysilicon sales at Wacker – Exhibit below. Wacker has certainly seen significant volume growth between the periods highlighted, but the step-up in demand will have allowed the company to move prices up., something we have been noting for months, but it is good to have confirmation. This is additional cost pressure for the solar panel manufacturers and is driving solar module prices higher. Given the expected demand growth for solar installations, we see no reason why this demand-pull should ease any time soon. While this is a problem for the solar industry, their materials suppliers could do very well for many years.
The headlines that are of most interest to us this week are the ones that continue the narrative of very strong demand, as they continue to point to materials inflation. While the auto producers have some raw material price protection in their contracts, the very strong results for 1Q 2021 suggest that they are not having to compromise much on pricing, as the demand is there, interest rates are low and consumer spending power is higher because of a year of incrementally adding to savings.