Our Sunday thematic and weekly recap report covers how the US is short of truck drivers (60,000) during a period when freight is struggling to move from congested ports – holiday buying will add more stress. This matters because we have record shipments of containers on the docks at US ports and record shipping backlogs waiting to unload as well as well documented shortages of durables in warehouses and at retailers.
The image below shows the mismatch in driver availability and trucking rates:
It does not mean that we have acute shortages – if you want to buy a couch or a TV you can get one – maybe not the one you want and perhaps not tomorrow, but warehouses are not empty. However, any disruption to the very fragile distribution system or even the idea of possible holiday-related shortages could cause a step up in demand – driven by fear rather than need – and there is no flexibility in the system in the US and part of Europe to cope with that. China is trying to keep factories open and pushing for more LNG for more power generation, but it will not matter if the logistics system cannot keep up.
